Sustainable water resources management under population growth and agricultural development in the Kheirabad river basin, Iran

In this study, an integrated system dynamics model was developed for scenario analysis in sub-sectors of the Kheirabad River Basin southwestern Iran where managing water resources is seriously challenging due to population growth and periodic drought. Afterward, variability demand supply under baseline different management policies, including conservation pricing, evaluated. Findings illustrated that with increasing cropland area if no further policies were implemented, total withdrawal increase by more than 0.75% annually. The annual surface availability during 2018-2030 expected decrease around -1.23%. Under these circumstances, sustainability index equal 0.703, indicating would not be able meet near future. However, resource increases significantly improving irrigation efficiency changing crop patterns at basin. Also, reduction per capita domestic pricing competition structure help improve 0.963 0.749, respectively.